After parliamentary elections earlier this month, the Democrats, who finished second, and the Socialists, who placed third, agreed to form a coalition government that would exclude Mr. Nikolic's Progressives, who won the most seats in the legislature, from power.

If that deal stands, it could make for a difficult cohabitation in the wake of a bitter election campaign, in which the Progressives accused the Democrats of vote fraud—a charge they deny and that prosecutors and other authorities deemed unfounded—and corruption.

Since 2008, when Mr. Nikolic left the ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party—the leader of which is now on trial for alleged war crimes in The Hague—he has worked to refashion his image and distance himself from his past political alliances and policy positions. His Progressive party has won support from Moscow, but has been greeted more skeptically by the EU and U.S.

It may take him some time to win the trust of officials in Brussels and Washington, who saw Mr. Tadic as committed to ever- stronger ties to the West. Mr. Tadic took a series of politically risky steps, including arresting and extraditing accused Bosnian Serb war criminal Ratko Mladic, to secure EU candidate status for Serbia.

In written responses to questions from The Wall Street Journal last week, Mr. Nikolic said, "I strongly believe that the only acceptable solution for Serbia is to join the European Union."

With 25.3 percent of the vote counted, the Serbian electoral commission said the Serbian Progressive Party of Tomislav Nikolic, a former ultranationalist ally of the Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic, had won 23.53 percent in the parliamentary elections, compared with 22.09 percent for the Democratic Party, led by President Boris Tadic.

Mr. Nikolic claimed victory and said he would begin coalition talks without delay. But with neither party appearing to have secured a majority, analysts predicted that Mr. Tadic’s Democrats were better placed to remain in power by forming a pro-European coalition government with smaller parties. The two leaders were neck and neck in the presidential race, but experts expected the pro-Western Mr. Tadic, a telegenic psychologist, to win a runoff vote on May 20.

At stake in the elections was whether Serbia, which gained European Union candidacy status in March, continues to pursue the difficult economic and political changes necessary to gain membership or whether the country turns inward and cultivates closer ties with Russia.

Just as in Greece and France, analysts said the governing party here appeared to have suffered a backlash from voters buffeted by the economic crisis.

Visceral indignation with joblessness and an arrogant political establishment benefited populist and nationalist parties as many voters turned toward onetime supporters of Mr. Milosevic, the former Yugoslav president who plunged the country into war and international isolation.

The biggest beneficiary was Mr. Nikolic, a former cemetery chief known as the Undertaker. He has close ties to Russia but recently has refashioned himself as a pro-European keen on bolstering links with the European Union and the United States.

The Socialist Party, once led by Mr. Milosevic, came in third with 16 percent of the vote, making it the kingmaker of the election. Its leader, Ivica Dacic, the interior minister in the current coalition government, has pledged to maintain Serbia on its pro-Western path. He indicated Sunday that being made prime minister was the price for his support.

The strong performance by Mr. Nikolic’s Progressive Party could also affect Serbia’s attitude toward regional reconciliation, including with its neighbor Kosovo, whose declaration of independence in 2008 was vehemently rejected by Serbia and is a continuing source of anger.

The elections come at a critical moment. Thirteen years after NATO bombed the capital, Belgrade, to halt the killing of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, Serbia’s status as a candidate to join the European Union has helped burnish its image. Mr. Tadic, who is 54, undertook several difficult steps, including arresting the war crimes suspects Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic, and making concessions over Kosovo.

But while Mr. Tadic has achieved important successes internationally, at home he has faced 24 percent unemployment, a political culture of cronyism and corruption, and accusations of authoritarianism. The average monthly wage here is $520, and growth is flat.

Mr. Nikolic, 60, has said that if Serbia is asked to recognize Kosovo as a condition of joining the European bloc, that would be a step too far. Until 2008, he was in the far-right Radical Party, whose fiery founder, Vojislav Seselj, faces war crimes charges.

An admirer of Russia, Mr. Nikolic had once said he would rather see Serbia become a province of Russia than a member of the European Union. He successfully tapped into voters’ anger over corruption and promised to improve social protections. Many critics say that Mr. Nikolic’s reorientation toward the West is merely a means to get elected.

But, analysts said, whoever ultimately forms the government, there is no turning back from Serbia’s path toward the bloc.

“The feelings of Serbs are fluctuating between despair and rage,” said Maja Piscevic, of the Serbian Association of Managers, which represents businesses. “But the nationalism of the past is over. There is still a consensus that Europe is the only answer.”

Tijana Minja, 28, a hotel clerk with a university degree, expressed the frustration of many here when she said she had all but given up on Serbian politics. “My family can barely survive on what we earn,” she said. “Our government has sold off the country and we have nothing to show for it.”

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