Reuters

Updated: 8:14 p.m. ET Sept. 16, 2004

WASHINGTON - A U.S. intelligence report prepared for President Bush in July offered a gloomy outlook for Iraq through the end of 2005, with the worst scenario being a deterioration into civil war, government officials said Thursday.

The alarming possible future in Iraq as outlined in the classified National Intelligence Estimate is in line with the view of many analysts and members of Congress, and the Bush administration has slowly begun to shift away from an optimistic tenor.

As recently as Sept. 10, Bush said Iraqi national elections “will be held in January.” On Thursday, he said only that “national elections are scheduled for January” and noted “ongoing acts of violence” in Iraq. Still, he insisted to supporters in St. Cloud, Minn.: “This country is headed toward democracy.”

The National Intelligence Estimate, which is a compilation of views from various intelligence agencies, predicted three scenarios, from a tenuous stability to political fragmentation to the most negative assessment of civil war, officials said.

“There doesn’t seem to be much optimism,” one official said.

Other officials said the intelligence report stated little more than the obvious, that there was a difficult road ahead in Iraq, hurdles to overcome and many factors that could affect the outcome in an unstable environment.

“It’s not illuminating beyond what everyone understands is the spectrum of possibilities here,” an official said.

White House press secretary Scott McClellan said it was up to policy-makers to address the challenges outlined in the National Intelligence Estimate.

However, he added, “the Iraqi people are proving that those scenarios are wrong by the progress that they are making to build a better future.”

Bolder insurgency

The insurgency has been growing bolder in its attacks on Iraqis and American troops, and on Thursday, gunmen snatched two Americans and a Briton from a Baghdad house.

More than 1,000 American troops have died in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion began in March 2003.

The intelligence report was initiated under former CIA Director George Tenet, who stepped down in July. The conclusions were reached before the recent worsening of Iraq’s security situation.

Democrats pounced on the gloomy assessment to criticize the Bush administration.

“The fact remains the administration ignored the intelligence community’s judgment that we would face significant opposition, including ethnic conflict,” said Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV of West Virginia, the senior Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee.

“As a result of miscalculation and inadequate planning, a civil war is increasingly likely,” he said in a statement.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe cited the intelligence report in accusing Bush of having “lied that things are improving in Iraq. Enough is enough.”

“We have a $200 billion quagmire in Iraq with no end in sight,” McAuliffe said at a news conference.

The Democratic presidential nominee, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, has been harshly critical of Bush’s decision to take the United States into war in Iraq.

“It’s time for him to start explaining what he’s doing to stabilize the situation on the ground in Iraq. His wrong Iraq policies have taken America in the wrong direction, and it’s time for him to come clean with the public about what’s going on,” said Phil Singer, a spokesman for the Kerry campaign.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, in a report to the Security Council last week, said the persistent violence in Iraq would make it difficult to hold elections in January.

A previous National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in October 2002 has been highly criticized for its assessments that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, when no large stockpiles have been found.

The 2002 report was a key piece of intelligence used by the Bush administration in making its case for going to war. It was later criticized for not taking into account dissenting views from some intelligence agencies about the status of Iraq’s banned weapons programs.

National Intelligence Estimates are produced by the National Intelligence Council, which reports to the CIA director.

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