Middle East for 33 years. When I became Baghdad Bureau Chief for Out2.com in April 2003, I was the first Internet newspaper representative to establish a war zone bureau.

In the past year I have written endless columns, and a large amount of news reporting, on the precarious situation in Iraq. No one wanted to listen. One cable network contacted me before the war began and said I was under consideration to join a panel of experts. I guess I was not expert enough. They never called back.

But even a check of the past 90 days columns at Out2.com shows my analysis and predictions have proven far more accurate than those of the "bang bang boys" (retired military experts) hired by all of the networks.

Way back in June 2003 I predicted that Paul Bremer would be hapless and incompetent. (E-mail reprints available on request). In July 2003 I predicted that the capture of Saddam could make matters worse, not better, for our armed forces in Iraq. When Saddam was captured, and Bremer crowed "we got him," I predicted chaos would ensue. No one was listening.

Unlike many U.S. media, which primarily rely on U.S. military and Washington briefings, we use international sources in formulating commentary and analyzing the news.

Today I am stating as a fact that there has been a meltdown in Iraq. If you pick up any newspaper in the United States, you will not find any suggestion of a crisis. Only my column at Out2.com is drawing this conclusion. Military leaders are treating conditions in Iraq as a problem to be solved, not a meltdown to be dealt with as an emergency.

If President Bush does not immediately exert radical, dramatic leadership, there will be nothing to "hand over" to Iraqis on June 30th, and he will be "handing over" the White House next January.

First, the United States has been humiliated in recent days. We don't know it, and the media are not treating it as a humiliation, but we have been and are being humiliated. After treating Iraq as a peaceful, sleepy backwater, sending home many regular troops and stuffing the country with reservists, we now find ourselves back at war. What "Mission accomplished?" None.

We are in the midst of a "Tet Offensive," and they aren't even aware of the fact in Washington--yet. What kind of Cool-Aid are they drinking at the Pentagon and in the White House?

The latest insurgent tactic of taking hostages makes Iraq a center of worldwide attention. Hostages always do. More humiliation.

Second, we have lost both military and political control of Iraq. Deal with it. Probably very much by accident. Moqtada Al-Sadar has shown the "emperor has no clothes." By accident. Al-Sadr has taken control of Kufa, Najaf, Karbala and Kut. The Shiite heartland is his. Sadr City is ready to explode. And all of this happened by accident.

Bozo Paul Bremer closed Al-Sadr's newspaper, with nary a thought as to the consequences of Bremer's hairy chested activism. Al-Sadar had a hissy fit and reacted. And the whole latticework of the occupation unexpectedly collapsed like a house of cards.

On March 25th, I held a Washington, DC news conference (see Out2.com) in which I stated "100,000 Americans [in Iraq] are surrounded by 300 million angry Arabs." Who would argue with that claim today?

But, let's be practical for a moment: how does the United States "reclaim" Kufa, Najaf, Karbala and Kut and restore American authority? With U.S. Marines? Be serious. U.S. Marines cleared the City of Hue, and cleared the Hue Citadel in 1968 during Tet. It was bloody. You want holy war? You got holy war.

In the middle of all this collapse and chaos, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon in planning to roll into town with a "withdrawal plan" next week that is an insult to the intelligence and which is sure to further inflame the Middle East. You want to pour fuel on the fire? Ariel the gas man is on his way. Hello Ariel? Stay home.

Give the devil his due: although Saddam was pilloried for "harboring terrorists," his "harboring" was mostly for show, typical Saddam.

Now Hezbollah is in Iraq. Those boys use live ammo. Just ask the Israelis. We have more than a "mere" meltdown; we may have a "China Syndrome" in progress, where the entire Middle East could go up in flames. American weakness is always perceived as Israeli weakness.

And, like sharks drawn to the scent of blood, real life terrorists, not Saddam's house pets, are on their way to fight in Iraq. Our military leaders have opened the flood gates to a war in Iraq which could end up costing thousands of lives, and be the real war that was predicted for 1991 and again for 2003.

And yet, the "military experts" on network television parrot back the cud being dished out in Baghdad and Washington.

Americans are not going to be happy campers when Iraq's reality intrudes on their fantasies and media fictions.

What do we do? The antidote necessary to stop the meltdown is painful. Very painful.

First, the President has to immediately dump his military and political leadership in Baghdad.

Then he has to do the same thing in the Pentagon, and send the so-called "neo-cons" packing. The theory that conquering Iraq would intimidate Palestinians and "pacify" the Middle East was a wild scheme that has backfired.

Bush needs to recognize he is in a battle for his political survival, get on Air Force One, and come back to Washington, today. He should invite contrarian participants to a closed White House conference. He needs to listen to his critics, not his right-wing sycophants.

This is one of the saddest columns I have ever had to write. Innocent men and women are dying in Iraq, Americans and Iraqis, because of American incompetence. My criticism of the leaders is not criticism of the men and women doing the fighting; I stand with them, that they should not die in vain. But most likely their sacrifices will end up being in vain. This is also a sad day for America, with worse to come. I may have been vindicated in my analysis and criticism, but I take no joy in it. Dark days lie ahead.

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Andy Martin is independent Contrarian Columnist and chief national and foreign correspondent for Out2.com. He has served as Baghdad Bureau Chief for Out2.com since April 2003. Since 1971, he has been involved in the Middle East and is scheduled to return to Baghdad in May. He is one of America's most respected foreign policy analysts. Media contact: (866) 706-2639; background stories: Out2.com (see Gov't & politics). Andymartin.com; E-mail: andy@andymartin.com. Martin is expected to file for the Republican Nomination for U.S. Senator from Florida, in May. Notwithstanding, Martin expects to be in position in Iraq on June 30th to cover the transition, if there is one.

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