4-15-21

We make a few introductory remarks on Andrei Martyanov’s analysis. We do not know whether Mr. Martyanov knows about all the weapons Russia has but we quote from an exchange I had with an American rocket expert on this subject of Russian capabilities:

The Russian S-500 anti-missile missile system is capable of sealing off Russian air space from the US ICBMs, Cruise missiles and drones. It travels at a speed of 16,000 miles an hour rising as high as 115 miles traveling horizontally over 2,174 miles. It carries ten interceptor missiles. It ends MAD or mutually assured destruction as it seals Russian air space and has been superseded by the S-600 that is a massive improvement. In a sense the US is no longer a global power according to Brzezinski if this is true which it is true. The next discussion is with a US missile expert regarding the S-500 which we gave those in the Pentagon an opportunity to respond to before distribution.

DKL to JN who is a US missile expert:

If you study the missile techniques of Werner von Braun that the Russians adopted, and apply it to the S-500, you can make a number of deductions. First, the Topol M carries ten MIRVs and goes 16,000 miles an hour. The S-500 carries ten interceptors and goes over 16,000 miles an hour. The S-500 is an offshoot of the Topol M. The S-500 was tested successfully about four to five years ago and is fully rolled out. The S-600 is rolling out now in 2019 and the S-700 will roll out in two to three years. Their speeds are in excess of 20,000 miles an hour. They essentially seal Russia’s air space.

Dr. von Braun developed the technique that you go into missile production even if you do not have the entire missile working but at 95%. Elon Musk appears to be following this path though he regards the Russians as the most advanced in missile technology in the world. You make the adjustments later. This has obvious benefits as you will have more missiles available earlier. This way you speed up the rollout. This was done with the S-500 which started its rollout well over five years ago. The F-35 Jet Fighter took 20 years to roll out where persistent delays the Pentagon blames on the Congressional appropriations process that just about cannot function as most other parts of the US.

JN to DKL:

“I have visited the factories where the Proton rocket is manufactured in Russia and the Zenit rocket is manufactured in Ukraine. Also, I have visited Star city where all the Russian cosmonauts train for space flight. Also. I knew Werner von Braun personally when he was at Red Stone, and can attest to the fact that he was a perfectionist, who was always driven by circumstances. Having been around rockets and heavy lift vehicles most of my career, I can attest that everyone and anyone responsible for the defence of their country would sleep much better at night (American or Russian) with an interceptor having a probability of success of 99.9999% versus one with 95% probability of success. In all-out war it would mean the difference between life and death of those being defended. Ask your sources!” (The US defensive systems were just about worthless even before Abiqaiq.)

DKL

What this missile expert JN is saying is if the Russian interceptors are 99% effective, some ICBMs of the US may break through and the Russians to handle this contingency have built in their cities nuclear bomb shelters to house up to 40,000,000 people. Thus, the Russians can win a nuclear war and it is not the end of the world. A nuclear war is winnable if you have the right equipment as the Russians do. It is the end of the US as the US has not built any nuclear shelters for its people and has no defensive missiles worthy of the name. The US would lose at least 80% of its population. The way the leaders of the US treat their own people is a disgrace.  

It is time to face the reality that the nuclear bomb is going to be treated as just another weapon. This does not mean that I believe that any bombing of civilian populations is morally justified as we saw in World War Two and in North Korea and Vietnam as it is not. We can think of Hiroshima and Nagasaki as major war crimes that should have been treated at the Nuremberg trials not to speak of the purposeful bombing of women and children. I am just stating plain facts based on the low morals that presently exist today in the US military as we can see in the sodomization of the US army.

The US cannot catch up. We estimate the Russian defence budget at 300 to 400 billion dollars and we hardly accept their official budget figures which are absurd. They have concealed their power from us as the Chinese have concealed their GDP which we estimate at about 1.5 times the size of the US GDP in real terms. Just look at their steel production which is near a trillion tons a year against ours at about a tenth of that or 87.9 million tons. Or their car production at 27 million cars in 2017 against ours of about 11 million cars.  You can run the whole gamut like this. If the Russian military development costs are 1/7 of the US, and they are, then the US defence budget has to be 2.1 to 2.8 trillion dollars to stay even. Right now the US defence budget is about a trillion dollars.  

Russia has a homogenous population but the US does not. Much of the US population hates the country as we saw last year in hundreds of burning cities and its secrets such as the F-35 were stolen almost at its inception so that the adversary saved a trillion dollars in research and development. The US cannot successfully screen out security risks based on charges of discrimination. The situation as it is has become hopeless.  I am including the whole process. The basic parameters on how the US runs its nation has to be changed at its foundation and it would take a revolution.  

Now we turn with that introduction to the short piece by Andrei Martyanov.

A REVIEW OF RUSSIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES

THE UKRAINE CRISIS

ANDREI MARTYANOV

Monday, April 12, 2021

Some Issues Of Numbers.

I wrote yesterday a piece exclusively for Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) where I address some issues re: the salvo of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in case NATO decides to “fight”. I don’t think that this scenario is likely but just in case, here are some conclusions by me:

…there is plenty of subsonic, supersonic and hypersonic goodness to spread around by Russia’s Black Sea Fleet alone and competent people in Pentagon know this. That is why the appearance of those two US destroyers in the Black Sea is, literally, for the appearance primarily and for trying to collect some intel for what seems today a diminishing probability of confrontation in Donbass. I often write that many people in the US, and I am talking about policy-makers, cannot grasp the scale of the America’s trailing Russia in fire power in all domains. It is not just quantitative; it is qualitative and the gap only continues to widen. But I warned about it for years, didn’t I?

Andrei Raevsky titled (correctly) my piece: Why It Is Not Advised. It is a symptomatic title since today, as if he read my books and recent writings, Colonel Douglas Macgregor penned a piece for The American Conservative which has a title: Facing the Facts of War with Russia. The Biden administration appears willing to get us into a fight we’re not ready for. I was calling on the US political elites to face the facts for many years now. Now American senior officer, a real professional, with reputation for realistic view of the world outside writes today:

If Russian military power prevails, President Biden’s promise of support means U.S. or Allied NATO air or ground forces may intervene to rescue the Ukrainians from defeat. In Europe, U.S. Army and Marine ground forces are too weak to intervene 500 miles east of the Polish border, even if reinforced in a timely manner by armored brigades. None of NATO’s ground forces are ready to cope with Russia’s BM-30 SMERCH Rocket Artillery Formations. Rockets fired from just five of Russia’s BM-30 SMERCH rocket launchers can devastate an area the size of New York City’s Central Park (843 acres, or 3.2 square miles) in minutes. Thus, if U.S. and allied forces do intervene, they are likely to do so with air assets. How effective Russian integrated air defenses will be is unknown, but it would be ill-advised to underestimate the impact of Russian IADs with phased array radars. Some of the newest air defense systems—like the Russian S-500—are so capable that many U.S. Defense officials privately worry that even warplanes like the F-22, F-35, and the B-2 risk destruction if they attempt to penetrate them.

Macgregor makes one small mistake though. Russia does not need S-500 to close off the skies over Ukraine. The line of modern S-series AD complexes, ranging from S-400 of AD forces to S-300V series of army specific (troops) AD and down to Buk-M3 and Tor-M2–are all integrated into flexible and well-protected network which has NO problem detecting, tracking and shooting down any target, be that small UAV or the most stealthiest aircraft or missile. Plus, of course, if shit hits the fan, Russian Air Force has enough assets to challenge any US air assets, the ones which will survive strikes at air field and bases. 

But this is not what really is important in Macgregor’s piece, most important is his corroboration of what I am writing and warning non-stop: the US is nuclear-biased and will initiate nuclear exchange because what is expecting US troops in case of the United States directly intervening into a possible conflict in Ukraine, is the level of human and materiel losses US Armed Forces never experienced in their history. Macgregor, essentially, agrees:

Since prevailing winds in Eastern Europe would spread nuclear fallout across Russia and Central Asia all the way to Korea, the Russian use of nuclear weapons is very unlikely—unless of course, U.S. forces use so-called “tactical nuclear weapons,” which would trigger Russian escalation to the strategic nuclear level with ominous consequences for planet Earth. However, virtually all U.S. and allied military installations, from Estonia to Spain, will be within range of Russian Kalibr Cruise Missiles carrying 1,000 pound, high explosive, conventional warheads.

As I am on record constantly–the United States never fought a war with its Command and Control system under the relentless sustained fire impact and its rear attacked and disorganized. Conventionally, the United States cannot win against Russia in Europe, at least Eastern part of it and Biden Admin better wake up to the reality that it may, indeed, not survive any kind of escalation and, in fact, modern Kalibrs, 3M14Ms, as a matter of fact, have a range of a 4,500 kilometers, as well as 5,000+ kilometer range of X-101 cruise missiles, which will have no issues with penetrating North American airspace when launched by Russia’s strategic bombers without even leaving the safety of Russia’s airspace.

 

 

 

 

It is good that Douglas Macgregor goes on record in this case and underscores the fact that Russia can and will, God forbids it comes to this, win conventionally, while the United States loses even in a nuclear conflict. But then again, in this case we all lose. Conveying this reality that the US has no good options against Russia is very important, especially to those people in current admin who have no clue about modern war and how it is fought–and that is the overwhelming majority of the US elites. I don’t want to end up being prophetic about the events which I am desperately trying to prevent. Having opinion of such a heavyweight as Douglas Macgregor being very similar to mine helps enormously. 

In related news, Ukrainian clown worries:

A spokesperson for Ukraine’s president say’s they’ve been trying to talk to Russia’s Vladimir Putin about the build-up of Russian troops on the border, but Putin isn’t taking the call.

Poor, poor baby. He ain’t seen nothing yet. When Russia begins a real build-up of Russian troops, he better be sure he has his jet fueled and ready to go in Borispol airport in Kiev. But this is just in case if he obliges and carries out his orders from his handlers in Washington. He still thinks that the United States is this “the finest fighting force in history”, well, he may learn soon enough the real situation if he is not cautious. As Peskov today responded to Blinken’s threats about “consequences” (in Russian) almost in Fulbright’s manner, that constant threatening with consequences and “paying a price” completely devalues those threats. Recall:

“It is simply not necessary for us to go around forever proclaiming: ‘I am the greatest!’ The more one does this sort of thing, in fact, the more people doubt it….” 

The United States simply exceeded a bragging limit. 

P.S. Today is 60th Anniversary since this guy and those backward Russian peasants launched first human in space. 

https://operationdisclosureofficial.com/2021/04/15/a-review-of-russian-military-capabilities/