UPDATE: Major Geo- Magnetic Storm Unfolding
Mitch Battros - Earth Changes
The photospheric magnetic field configuration of sunspot region 1429 has somewhat stabilized; although it still remains a beta-gamma-delta active region. Another X-class flare is still possible in this active region, but with less probability compared to that two days ago.
Due to region 1429's position close to the solar central meridian, another Earth-directed CME and SEP release would be probable, also in case of an M-class flare.
An interplanetary shock wave was detected by ACE at 10:45 UT today. However, the ACE plasma data is still corrupt due to ongoing high-speed stream of charged particles. Also, SOHO/CELIAS data is unavailable which would confirm a shock wave had been detected, but there is little doubt this is the start of the interplanetary disturbance produced by the full halo CME observed on the Sunday March 7th.
The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude in the wake of the shock is elevated (30-40 nT), but the IMF north-south component is directed northward. Its turn to the south is not excluded, so a major (K = 7 or even higher) geomagnetic storm is expected. The major SEP event is still ongoing, with the flux of protons peaking around the shock arrival. We expect the proton event to continue further on for at least another day.
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